ByteDance: the $600bn+ company that still won't IPO

ByteDance Ltd is a Cayman Islands-domiciled technology company operating content platforms across approximately 150 markets, with offices in ~126 cities globally. Key products include Douyin, TikTok, Toutiao, Xigua Video, Helo, Lark, and BytePlus. The company is classified as an ultimate parent entity and is currently PE-backed.

Revenue

ByteDance made $120bn of revenue in the first half of 2026, up about 30%, and $20bn of net profit. That is roughly Meta's growth rate at about a third of Meta's valuation.

Yet a listing isn't coming soon. In June, CEO Liang Rubo told staff an IPO is "not on the table at this time". Shareholders are getting their money out through company buybacks instead.

Valuation trajectory

According to Reuters:

• March 2025: approximately $315 billion
• August 2025: above $330 billion
• November 2025: approximately $480 billion
• February 2026: approximately $550 billion in a proposed General Atlantic transaction
• September 2026: around $600-630 billion based on reported private market and secondary transaction estimates

Valuation doubled in 18 months: from about $315bn (March 2025 buyback) to about $630bn on secondary markets today.

Valuation multiples

Cheap on sales, fair on earnings: about 2.6x sales against Meta's 8.2x and Alphabet's 9.6x, and about 16x profit, similar to Alphabet Inc. and Tencent.

AI is the swing factor

About $30bn of new bank loans is going into data centres and its own chips. Profit dipped even as revenue grew.

Spin-offs first

Car platform Dongchedi is preparing a Hong Kong IPO with Citi and Goldman Sachs, which could become the model for listing parts of the group.

TikTok risk

The US joint venture approved in January removed a major overhang.

Our view

ByteDance doesn't need public money, so any IPO will be driven by regulators, not cash needs. Until then, private-market prices will keep setting the benchmark for China tech.