IG Group Shares Plunged ~22%

I compared eight listed brokers in one currency (USD) and looked at what last week's profit warning did to IG Group. Here's how to read the tables:

1. Peer valuation

Market value and four valuation multiples for each broker. Orange marks the cheapest in each column. IG Group has the lowest trailing P/E (7.2x) and forward P/E (7.1x). eToro is cheapest on EV/EBITDA and price-to-book.

2. Market cap tiers

The group splits into three tiers. Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers and Robinhood (USD 101-167bn) hold about 96% of the group's USD 437bn value. IG Group, at USD 4.3bn, is about 2.9% of IBKR's size.

3. Forward P/E clusters

Valuations group by business model:

• Growth premium (~29-42x): IBKR and Robinhood
• Mid-range (10-15x): Schwab, Swissquote, Plus500, CMC Markets
• Deep discount (7-8x): IG Group and eToro, both heavily exposed to OTC/CFD trading

4. IG Group's earnings downgrade

On 2 October, IG cut its 2026 revenue growth guidance from 10-15% to mid-single digits after OTC revenue retention fell to about 70% (from about 80%).

5. The compounding effect

The market cut both the earnings and the multiple it will pay:

124p x 10x = 1,240p → 107p x 9.2x = ~985p

EPS (-14%) x multiple (-8%) = approximately -21% on the share price.

Why the multiple fell too:

• The miss was in revenue quality, not just trading volumes
• 10-15% guidance had been reiterated as recently as mid-2026
• It raises doubts over the medium-term targets

Our take

At 7x earnings, IG is priced for more downgrades. If OTC retention recovers towards 80%, today's discount looks too wide. If it doesn't, the market is right. Is IG Group a value opportunity or a value trap?